Great Moments in Vague

"Unstuffed Bell Peppers" - Menu item from Senior Menu in the October 21st Shafter Press.

Side dishes will presumably be unwedged potatoes and not steamed green beans.

From the chef* - "Look, what is it? Tuesday? I don't know. I can tell you this: bell peppers will be involved and I've ruled out stuffing them, but beyond that, you'll have to come and see for yourself."

*Totally made up (if that wasn't clear).

Football News

Shafter came up a bit short against BCHS.

Tehachapi beats Taft up on the mountain. With Steve Sprague's lack of generosity following Taft's blowout victory over Wasco last week, you have to believe that Taft was working against some serious karmic headwinds facing the Warriors. Here's hoping they last a little bit longer as Shafter goes to Taft next week.

It is also worth noting that, according to his twitter account, Taft quarterback Hunter Liljeroos disapproves of Sprague's play-calling. Take some responsibility, Hunter. You're the quarterback. Be a leader. Go rogue! Go rogue!

Basketballs Start Bouncing

Basketball players not in a fall sport have been coming to school in the darkness of early morning for conditioning. Basketballs come out next week. The schedule is out. It is an exciting time.

Friday's Suddenly and Surprisingly Winnable Game

After losing the first two games of the season by a combined score of 114-0, few would have given Shafter a chance against Bakersfield Christian. The Eagles were fearsome last year and the first two games of the season went their way by a combined score 101-0. Things have changed. Bakersfield Christian has not won a game since their first two games and Shafter has managed to win a couple, putting both teams at 2 and 5 on the year. The one common opponent so far has been Tehachapi. Shafter can take comfort in the fact that they were only down to the Warriors by 14 at the half on their way to a 28-0 loss. BCHS was down 34-0 at the half, but managed to score 12 points and also lost by 28. We'll call it a wash. The oddsmakers will probably make Shafter slight underdogs in this one. Even this once seemed wildly optimistic.

UPDATE:
Calpreps.com Prediction: BCHS 24, Shafter 17
At this point in the season, the Calpreps computer is pretty accurate, picking the right winner around 85% of the time nation wide.

Zach Ewing Prediction: BCHS 34, Shafter 24
Here is Ewing's write-up:

BAKERSFIELD CHRISTIAN (2-5, 0-2 SSL) AT SHAFTER (2-5, 1-1) — Hard to believe that it was just a year ago that BCHS was coming off of a scintillating shootout win against Tehachapi and blazing its way to an SSL title. Now the Eagles simply have to be worried about snapping out of this five-game losing streak. The good news is that Shafter, despite its own thrilling victory last week at Arvin, is more like the two teams Bakersfield Christian beat (Avenal and Kennedy) than it's like the five teams it lost to. Shafter will hang around, and a win here would really be huge for the program, but I think Arend Bos and the Eagles receivers hit enough big plays to give BCHS a much-needed victory.

We will see. It is true that BCHS has had a tough schedule in the last five games, but Avenal and Kennedy? Those are two very, very bad teams. Coast Union would be a three touchdown underdog to Shafter and they beat Avenal by three touchdowns. Kennedy is worse. A bit of a low blow.

My First Genuinely Nice Post About Wasco

As much as I do enjoy seeing Wasco fail, I couldn't help but feel some sympathy after reading this article. Wasconians want for Wasco High what any town wants: a team for the community to be proud of and rally around. There is a lot for Shafter people to relate to in some local guys enthusiastic about building a program and getting kids to buy into that. The buzz around town has been missing from Shafter for a few years too and reading about the Wasco citizenry returning to the field brings warm memories.

I would also add that Prado and Moreno seem like class guys, especially in contrast to the Taft coach, Steve Sprague, who offered this quote after the game: "(N)o disrespect to Wasco, but I really did expect this kind of a game." None taken, I'm sure.

Best Friday in a While

Shafter picked up a win in Arvin. The Generals won't be contending for the league title this year, but they do seem to be improving. Shafter kept it relatively close against Tehachapi and now beat an Arvin team that no one expects to be especially good, but was favored in this game.

"WASCO -- The big, juiced-up crowd. The gaudy record. Kern County's leading rusher, Quentin Cheatham. The best Wasco High team in years. All of the elements were there for a South Sequoia League showdown for the ages." As it turns out, not really.

Maybe this won't be the kind of defeat that aggravates tensions within the team, reduces Wasco testosterone levels for months, and generally sets Tiger football on the path of self-destruction and unfulfilled promise that Wasco fans know so well... But maybe it will.

In the Jerald Pierucci watch, East lost to Garces in a shootout.

Wasco Football: Oasis in a Desert?

Wasco seems to have a good football team this year. There are even some suggestions that they are building a genuine program with a local guy, Russ Prado, at the helm who is committed to building for the long term. I wish them well, but the question remains whether the deep flaws in the collective character of Wasco will undermine this effort. I've noted before the disorder and confusion expressed in the naming of the town. Then there is the suggestive fact that Wasco city fathers have decided to let rivers of their own feces run across the land. All of this has left the city with some confidence issues.

I am not the first to notice the depth of Wasco's challenges. In a justly famous 1947 study of agriculture and community life in the Central Valley, As You Sow, anthropologist Arthur Goldschmidt saw Wasco as a good example of what can go bad. It is worth reading in its entirety, but perhaps the best line is a seemingly exasperated aside as Professor Goldschmidt,writing of an effort by dairymen to work together on marketing, notes (on page 46 of the 1978 edition) "Like most co-operative effort(s) in Wasco, it proved unsuccessful..." History, as they say, doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Maybe football will be different.

Thoughts on the Shafter Press

The Shafter Press, I am told, was once a conventional newspaper. It delivered information. How boring. I like it better now that reading it is more of a literary experience.

What do I mean?

Metaphor is at the heart of literature. For Aristotle, metaphor was composed partly of a difference - calling something what it was not. But for a metaphor to work the name had to have a hidden connection to the named thing. The fun of metaphor comes, not from any specific information it delivers, but from the search for the hidden connection. Metaphors implicitly raise a question. What does "picture" have to do with "memory?" What does "running" have to do with "flying?"

In the same way, while reading the Shafter Press, I often find myself asking questions like - what does this picture of City Council Member Fran Florez have to do with the caption below it about the Maple Junior High girls volleyball team? or what is the relationship of "Cindo de Mayo" to the more familiar Mexican holiday? Connections in the Press are elusive and metaphorical.

The October 14th issue explores the relationship between headlines and stories. For example, one headline above pictures of a volleyball game reads, "Shafter drops two contestants." "Contestants" is a word usually reserved for beauty pageants and cake walks, but sometimes games are called "contests," so, "contestants" could be players (maybe dropped from the team for disciplinary reasons), or the opposing teams ("Nice try contestant, but you've been dropped!"). Reading the story, however, one learns that Shafter lost two matches, which makes me wonder what "drops" means here.

Another example comes from the opposite page, where the headline reads "Colonels defeated Tigers." The headline draws our attention to the fact that most headlines are written in the present tense, even though the events they refer to are in the past. Otherwise this seems pretty straightforward - Good job, Colonels. Congrats on the victory... But then I read the first sentence "...as the host Tigers defeated the Colonels 22-14." Now I am wondering how to reconcile the headline and the story. Layers and layers.

Good stuff, Press. Blows my mind.

Jimmy Laughlin Set to Figaro

Shafter-Kerman

Series Record: 3 wins, 3 losses

1949-50: Shafter 28, Kerman 24
1982-83: Shafter 64, Kerman 57
2001-02: Shafter, 61 Kerman 63
2003-04: Shafter 44, Kerman 62
2004-05: Shafter 63, Kerman 68
2005-06: Shafter 58, Kerman 53

Jerald Pierucci Delivers

Jerald Pierucci, who was a standout football and basketball player at Shafter High in the early 1990s and went on to a successful football career at UNLV, returned to the area last year to coach the East High Blades. The first year was tough, as expected. The Blades won just one game. However, after a 4OT victory over Foothill last night, Pierucci's squad is riding a three game winning streak and perfect in league. Congratulations, Jerald. We are not surprised.

A stiff shot of boomer nostalgia.

Football News

Zach Ewing has some football news over at his blog. Jim Crichlow vs. Wasco High continues to be an interesting match-up. Wasco has prevailed in both contests so far. First, there was the Medina affair and now the question of assigning blame for a game that never happened. From the Intrepid One's account, Wasco looks pretty innocent in this deal. Of course, we should always remember that in Wasco, the roses not only have thorns, but may well be nourished by rivers of human waste (the farmers have a special deal with the city).

Shafter-Fowler

Series Record: 5 wins, 1 loss

Current Streak: 5 wins

1945-46: Shafter 17, Fowler 27
1946-47: Shafter 26, Fowler 25
1998-99: Shafter, 55 Fowler, 33
1999-00: Shafter 56, Fowler 42
2000-01: Shafter, 78 Fowler 38
2002-03: Shafter 68, Fowler, 54

1997-98: Shafter 72, Yosemite 88 (playoffs)

Here is a little more footage of that 97-98 season, with more Jimmy Laughlin highlights. I do not mean to neglect the other players on this team. It had some very good players. There is one shot in particular from Clay Watson the following year that I have on film and am just trying locate. Jimmy's highlights do tend to be more videogenic.



This was the last game of the season and of Laughlin's career. Yosemite shot the lights out. I don't know that many teams could have beat them on this night.

On fame's eternal camping ground - Part 1

1997-98: Shafter 62, Ridgeview 47

Watching this game in its entirety, it is hard not to be impressed with Jimmy Laughlin (#32). This is a game from 1997-98, his senior year and his third as the varsity point guard. He must have had some bad games, but this was not one of them. In fact, it was a nearly perfect game. He made some tough shots and missed, by my count, twice. One of those was an end of the quarter half court shot. He had several assists and was almost always the one who initiated the action on offense. He committed one turnover, when he succumbed to a double team. Ridgeview was trying to find a way to double team Laughlin all night, but with that one exception, when a second defender would approach, he would reverse field and blow by his primary defender (start at 0:23 for an illustration and by the way, that is a young Coach John Wiebe who makes the shot at the end of that play). The highlights don't do justice to how thoroughly Laughlin owned this game.

Great Moments in Comeuppance Nearly Missed

On March 9th, 1994, the San Diego Union-Tribune published an article that I recently discovered and found quite interesting. The topic was a game that has arguably been discussed to death on this site. Nonetheless I learned a few things. The story begins with Jelani McCoy shattering the backboard in a shoot-around hours before the game.

"It wasn't even one of his monster slams, it was just a baby one," said St. Augustine coach Bill Peterson. "The backboard just disintegrated, sending shards of glass down on Jelani.

"He had more than 50 cuts on his body but none of them required stitches. We took him to the hospital and they fixed him up."

...Peterson said he'd try to play without McCoy.

McCoy did play, scoring 11 points, collecting 20 rebounds and blocking five shots, including one with four seconds remaining as the Saints survived a slowdown.

For the coach, however, the incident earlier was just the beginning of a frustrating saga he doesn't wish to repeat.

First, he tried to have the game moved to a neutral site or as a doubleheader in combination with the Helix-East Bakersfield game nearby. No dice, said Shafter officials.

Then, when the new glass backboard was in place, Peterson discovered the real reason McCoy brought the old one down.

"They never loosened up the rims, which are supposed to break away under 200 pounds or more of weight. I weigh 200 and just hung on the rim. It didn't even bend. I finally convinced someone to adjust the rims on both ends of the court -- I don't think anyone at that school had ever tried a slam dunk. I know the rims had never been loosened like they're supposed to.

"The principal at Shafter tried to say we'd play the game with a rule prohibiting slam dunks. Half our team can slam. We said no thanks."

The game went on as scheduled and McCoy convinced Peterson to start him.

Rekosh's negotiations as principal remind me of the famous Kerman game. I'm not saying it is a good thing, but history suggests that if you come to Shafter for a big game, expect shenanigans. We bring the shenanigans.

Just like in Arrested Development, I find all the characters here wonderful in their own way, but my overriding impression is that the St. Augustine coach is one arrogant dude, a guy who really had it coming, but narrowly escaped.

Shafter-Wasco

Shafter 84-96, 1 Unknown

Longest Winning Streak: 14 (1981-82 to 1986-87)
Longest Losing Streak: 7 (1943-44 to 1946-47)
Current Streak: 1 win

1930-31: Shafter 22, Wasco 16 * First SHS win
1930-31: Shafter 20, Wasco 22
1931-32: Shafter 11, Wasco 16
1931-32: Shafter 7, Wasco 19
1932-33: Shafter L, Wasco W
1932-33: Shafter L, Wasco W
1933-34: Shafter 10, Wasco 33
1933-34: Shafter, Wasco - Unknown
1934-35: Shafter 15, Wasco 32
1934-35: Shafter 25, Wasco 40
1935-36: Shafter 12, Wasco 19
1936-37: Shafter 17, Wasco 41
1936-37: Shafter 21, Wasco 32
1937-38: Shafter 20, Wasco 11
1938-39: Shafter 25, Wasco 23
1938-39: Shafter 15, Wasco 17
1939-40: Shafter 29, Wasco 24
1941-42: Shafter 21, Wasco 39
1941-42: Shafter 26, Wasco 37
1943-44: Shafter 35, Wasco 27
1943-44: Shafter 26, Wasco 28
1943-44: Shafter 29, Wasco 33
1944-45: Shafter L, Wasco W
1944-45: Shafter 23, Wasco 40
1945-46: Shafter 18, Wasco 48
1945-46: Shafter 26, Wasco 61
1946-47: Shafter 31, Wasco 35
1947-48: Shafter 29, Wasco 21
1947-48: Shafter 26, Wasco 35
1948-49: Shafter 25, Wasco 56
1948-49: Shafter 23, Wasco 63
1949-50: Shafter 40, Wasco 47
1949-50: Shafter 32, Wasco 28
1949-50: Shafter W, Wasco L
1950-51: Shafter 33, Wasco 38
1950-51: Shafter 51, Wasco 32
1951-52: Shafter 41, Wasco 42
1951-52: Shafter 40, Wasco 48
1952-53: Shafter 60, Wasco 35
1952-53: Shafter 53, Wasco 44
1953-54: Shafter 29, Wasco 31
1953-54: Shafter 42, Wasco 35
1954-55: Shafter 31, Wasco 30
1954-55: Shafter 46, Wasco 45
1955-56: Shafter 42, Wasco 40
1955-56: Shafter 40, Wasco 57
1956-57: Shafter 35, Wasco 50
1956-57: Shafter 42, Wasco 39
1957-58: Shafter 49, Wasco 42
1957-58: Shafter 45, Wasco 39
1958-59: Shafter 56, Wasco 59
1958-59: Shafter 49, Wasco 52
1959-60: Shafter 40, Wasco 55
1959-60: Shafter 37, Wasco 42
1960-61: Shafter 43, Wasco 46
1960-61: Shafter 57, Wasco 42
1961-62: Shafter 23, Wasco 44
1961-62: Shafter 24, Wasco 54
1961-62: Shafter 38, Wasco 31
1962-63: Shafter 50, Wasco 41
1962-63: Shafter 39, Wasco 46
1963-64: Shafter 41, Wasco 52
1963-64: Shafter 34, Wasco 44
1964-65: Shafter 44, Wasco 48
1964-65: Shafter 57, Wasco 54
1965-66: Shafter 47, Wasco 52
1965-66: Shafter 56, Wasco 76
1965-66: Shafter 52, Wasco 66
1966-67: Shafter 49, Wasco 69
1967-68: Shafter 58, Wasco 55
1967-68: Shafter 52, Wasco 65
1967-68: Shafter 56, Wasco 58
1968-69: Shafter 33, Wasco 28
1968-69: Shafter 50, Wasco 48
1968-69: Shafter 46, Wasco 41
1969-70: Shafter 45, Wasco 58
1969-70: Shafter 56, Wasco 72
1970-71: Shafter 64, Wasco 72
1970-71: Shafter 72, Wasco 61
1970-71: Shafter 58, Wasco 63
1971-72: Shafter 76, Wasco 73
1971-72: Shafter 55, Wasco 57
1971-72: Shafter 62, Wasco 73
1971-72: Shafter 55, Wasco 65
1972-73: Shafter 33, Wasco 38
1972-73: Shafter 52, Wasco 39
1972-73: Shafter 32, Wasco 47
1972-73: Shafter 46, Wasco 59
1973-74: Shafter 32, Wasco 47
1973-74: Shafter 48, Wasco 57
1974-75: Shafter 50, Wasco 67
1974-75: Shafter 42, Wasco 58
1975-76: Shafter 46, Wasco 40
1975-76: Shafter 61, Wasco 47
1976-77: Shafter 51, Wasco 55
1976-77: Shafter 56, Wasco 51
1977-78: Shafter 65, Wasco 60
1977-78: Shafter 61, Wasco 79
1978-79: Shafter 46, Wasco 52
1978-79: Shafter 46, Wasco 44
1978-79: Shafter 52, Wasco 64
1979-80: Shafter 52, Wasco 45
1979-80: Shafter 37, Wasco 43
1979-80: Shafter 52, Wasco 54
1980-81: Shafter 51, Wasco 47
1980-81: Shafter 50, Wasco 42
1980-81: Shafter 46, Wasco 50
1981-82: Shafter 63, Wasco 50
1981-82: Shafter 64, Wasco 56
1982-83: Shafter 65, Wasco 47
1982-83: Shafter 58, Wasco 47
1983-84: Shafter 80, Wasco 45
1983-84: Shafter 49, Wasco 47
1983-84: Shafter 57, Wasco 53
1984-85: Shafter 42, Wasco 28
1984-85: Shafter 67, Wasco 57
1984-85: Shafter 57, Wasco 47
1985-86: Shafter 60, Wasco 37
1985-86: Shafter 59, Wasco 41
1985-86: Shafter 71, Wasco 51
1986-87: Shafter 62, Wasco 38
1986-87: Shafter 49, Wasco 51
1986-87: Shafter 66, Wasco 36
1987-88: Shafter 73, Wasco 61
1987-88: Shafter 59, Wasco 44
1988-89: Shafter 59, Wasco 60
1988-89: Shafter 72, Wasco 80
1988-89: Shafter 50, Wasco 49
1989-90: Shafter 52, Wasco 59
1989-90: Shafter 56, Wasco 73
1990-91: Shafter 35, Wasco 53
1990-91: Shafter 55, Wasco 68
1990-91: Shafter 52, Wasco 68
1991-92: Shafter 66, Wasco 60
1991-92: Shafter 62, Wasco 48
1991-92: Shafter 60, Wasco 54
1991-92: Shafter 66, Wasco 52
1992-93: Shafter 57, Wasco 42
1992-93: Shafter 64, Wasco 42
1993-94: Shafter 48, Wasco 66
1993-94: Shafter 62, Wasco 51
1993-94: Shafter 56, Wasco 51
1994-95: Shafter 57, Wasco 53
1994-95: Shafter 53, Wasco 44
1994-95: Shafter 43, Wasco 46
1994-95: Shafter 67, Wasco 61
1995-96: Shafter 43, Wasco 64
1995-96: Shafter 49, Wasco 55
1996-97: Shafter 39, Wasco 48
1996-97: Shafter 38, Wasco 47
1996-97: Shafter 44, Wasco 57
1996-97: Shafter 52, Wasco 62
1997-98: Shafter, 52 Wasco, 51
1997-98: Shafter, 52 Wasco, 40
1997-98: Shafter, 74 Wasco, 41
1998-99: Shafter, 49 Wasco, 38
1998-99: Shafter, 52 Wasco, 44
1998-99: Shafter, 62 Wasco, 58
1999-00: Shafter 51, Wasco 47
1999-00: Shafter 34, Wasco 37
1999-00: Shafter 39, Wasco 52
2000-01: Shafter, 49 Wasco 67
2000-01: Shafter, 48 Wasco 34
2001-02: Shafter, 43 Wasco 39
2001-02: Shafter, 40 Wasco 42
2001-02: Shafter, 36 Wasco 33
2002-03: Shafter, 47 Wasco 72
2002-03: Shafter, 56 Wasco 51
2003-04: Shafter 38, Wasco 62
2003-04: Shafter 31, Wasco 59
2004-05: Shafter 43, Wasco 67
2004-05: Shafter 36, Wasco 45
2005-06: Shafter 45, Wasco 44
2005-06: Shafter 55, Wasco 59
2005-06: Shafter 59, Wasco 57
2006-07: Shafter 63, Wasco 48
2006-07: Shafter 80, Wasco 67
2007-08: Shafter 70, Wasco 64
2007-08: Shafter 51, Wasco 42
2008-09: Shafter 41, Wasco 56
2008-09: Shafter 54, Wasco 43

The Universal Barbershop

I need to do some work on the navigation, but it is all there. Reminds me of this.

1997-98: 15-9

Coach: Stan Davis
15 wins, 9 losses

Shafter, 55 Coalinga, 31
Shafter, 47 Atascadero, 62
Shafter, 48 Templeton, 51
Shafter, 76 Mission Prep, 57
Shafter, 39 Foothill, 32
Shafter, 33 East, 30
Shafter, 45 Kern Valley, 42
Shafter, 50 Arvin, 45
Shafter, 52 Wasco, 51
Shafter, 59 Arvin, 56
Shafter, 39 Tehachapi, 57
Shafter, 38 Foothill, 31
Shafter, 46 Delano, 54
Shafter, 61 Garces, 71
Shafter, 58 Taft, 32
Shafter, 42 Ridgeview, 58
Shafter, 58 Tehachapi, 69
Shafter, 52 Wasco, 40
Shafter, 56 Garces, 73
Shafter, 57 Taft, 45
Shafter, 62 Ridgeview, 47 Highlights
Shafter, 52 Tehachapi, 48
Shafter, 74 Wasco, 41
Shafter, 72 Yosemite, 88 Highlights

1996-97
1998-99

Private Schools and Athletics: Garces Fiasco Edition

A while ago I posted my theory that private schools are either very good at sports or very bad because private schools are vulnerable to a depth of athletic and institutional failure that public schools, being the default option for a certain geographic territory, are not. So either schools succumb to the downward pressures and have very bad teams or, the vulnerability fuels an anxious culture of striving in all associated with the school, which mixed with some success, begins to reproduce itself. The other factor that works in favor of private schools (and I may someday get the research I've done to support this in presentable shape) is that schools whose kids come from wealthier families have better sports teams than poorer schools, controlling for enrollment, and private schools are much wealthier than public schools.

Which brings me to the mess at Garces. I have no idea what is going on beneath all the shakeups over there, but one thing is clear - it is not good for the Garces image, donor base, or enrollment. The loyal Garces people all seem to be mad about the new principal giving grief to the Garces Camelot of Fanuccis. I am sure the ties are strong enough to keep their kids Rams, but what about the folks who are interested but not dyed "in the wool" loyalists? Makes me wonder if BCHS starts to look more attractive to those folks. Such is the vulnerability and potential of private schools.

Hope, allow me to introduce you to Reality.

Some might say I am irrepressibly optimistic about Shafter Basketball all the time, but preseason is a time when hope can float with a very long tether (reference to this in that sentence was entirely unintentional). Still, finding myself wanting a slightly less baseless optimism, I started looking into the numbers.

My thought was this - a team that returns most of its players should improve more than a team starting from scratch. Since we don't know who on any of the teams will be eligible, interested, and able, I just focused on what we do know, namely the players in their final year of eligibility. Things always change, a senior transfers in, a junior moves away, but for the sake of keeping things honest and consistent, I stick with what is public knowledge for all of the schools before the season starts. I took the percentage of points scored by non-seniors in the prior year as a measure of returning experience and change in the CalPreps rating as a measure of improvement. The CalPreps rating is based on a computer model. A higher number indicates a better team.


Looking at SSL schools since the 05-06 season, my intuition found some support. Dots above the horizontal axis are teams that were better than they had been the prior year, below the line, worse. Dots to the left are teams that lost more of their scoring to graduation, those to the right, less. In the bottom left corner is the 06-07 team that had lost all but 2% of the scoring from the prior year. Predictably, the team fell off of a cliff. In the top right are the BCHS teams that didn't graduate any scoring for two years and improved significantly each year as well as last year's Shafter squad. With 85% of its scoring eligible to return, the Generals improved their calpreps rating by about 8 points.

There is a clear relationship, even with these few cases, but it is stronger at the extremes. In the middle things are much less clear. Still, I thought I would see what this factor would predict for the coming season. The diagonal line marks the trend. The break even point is almost right at 50%. So graduating half of your scoring is the path to balance, harmony, and stasis.

Here is how the SSL looks:

	%Pts Non-srs	Pred. Rating
BCHS	24%	2.49
Taft	64%	-8.67
Tehachapi	38%	-8.98
Wasco	59%	-11.47
Shafter	36%	-17.44
Arvin	4%	-25.34

BCHS' Hall and Herron finally graduated. The Eagles will return less than a quarter of last year's scoring. Still, they were so good last year that the model favors them to win the league, even after knocking more than 10 points from their rating. Tehachapi and Shafter also have some big holes to fill and are punished accordingly. Wasco and Taft lose the least and stand the best chance of improving, on this measure. Arvin is probably in for a tough year. Even if they had a very good crop of incoming juniors, the loss of so much scoring would be tough to make up.

This is a pretty crude measure, but my guess, based on what I saw this summer is that it is in the neighborhood in ranking, but probably overstates the differences between the top five.